Visible Alpha
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 31 brokers · 319 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-27.
Thirty-one brokers model The Trade Desk, and they agree tightly on the revenue line — about $3.2bn in FY-2026 and $3.5bn in FY-2027 — while disagreeing on how it is earned. The models take gross spend on the platform from roughly $14bn in FY-2025 to $18bn in FY-2028, with take rate supplying most of the FY-2026 lift and volume most of the FY-2027 lift. Underneath that, Visual-and-TV and audio spend account for the growth: mobile in-app and web spend falls in FY-2026 and never regains its FY-2025 level. The soft spots are delivery cost and cash conversion, where broker ranges are far wider than on revenue.
Take rate adds about a point in FY-2026; volume takes over in FY-2027 as gross spend grows about 11%
Revenue growth barely moves across the two years, so the change is all in the mix — price of the platform first, then throughput. The quarterly path shows the same reset: take rate builds to about 21.6% by 4QFY-2026, then steps back to 20.7% in 1QFY-2027.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross spend | $14.14bn | $14.91bn | $16.60bn | $17.86bn | +5.4% | 22 |
| Take rate(%) | 20.5% | 21.4% | 21.1% | 21.3% | +0.9pt | 24 |
| Revenue | $2.89bn | $3.18bn | $3.48bn | $3.74bn | +10.0% | 31 |
Visual-and-TV and audio spend take all the growth; mobile in-app and web never regains its FY-2025 level
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growing | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross spend - Visual and TV | $6.95bn | $7.67bn | $8.74bn | $9.77bn | +10.4% | 15 |
| Gross spend - Audio | $728.67m | $880.46m | $1.02bn | $1.21bn | +20.8% | 14 |
| Flat to down | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross spend - Mobile In- App & Web | $4.84bn | $4.37bn | $4.57bn | $4.66bn | -9.7% | 14 |
| Gross spend - Display, Social, Native and others | $1.54bn | $1.70bn | $1.72bn | $1.97bn | +10.3% | 15 |
Platform-operations cost runs well ahead of revenue in FY-2026; the sales and R&D lines do not
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost lines | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Platform operations | $625.99m | $735.24m | $809.11m | $881.53m | +17.5% | 25 |
| Sales and marketing | $641.46m | $696.29m | $750.93m | $796.77m | +8.5% | 24 |
| Technology and development | $538.52m | $572.54m | $611.24m | $649.13m | +6.3% | 24 |
| Margin | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA margin(%) | 40.6% | 39.7% | 39.9% | 40.4% | -0.9pt | 31 |
| Cash | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Capital expenditures | $216.32m | $285.15m | $255.06m | $280.98m | +31.8% | 27 |
| Free cash flow | $783.03m | $782.36m | $883.77m | $978.15m | -0.1% | 27 |
| Free cash flow per share($) | $1.58 | $1.64 | $1.85 | $2.05 | +4.1% | 27 |
Brokers agree on revenue and split on take rate, buybacks and free cash flow
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Take rate(%) | FY-2027E | 21.4% | 20.8%–21.6% | 18.8%–22.6% | 24 |
| Repurchases of common stock | FY-2026E | $163.51m | $163.51m–$613.51m | $159.01m–$1.04bn | 17 |
| Free cash flow | FY-2027E | $866.59m | $767.16m–$1.00bn | $453.56m–$1.22bn | 27 |
| Gross spend - Mobile In- App & Web | FY-2027E | $4.60bn | $4.37bn–$4.86bn | $3.53bn–$5.68bn | 11 |
| Gross spend - Visual and TV | FY-2028E | $9.58bn | $9.17bn–$10.40bn | $8.12bn–$11.58bn | 12 |
The differentiated KPI lines rest on far fewer brokers than the P&L
Revenue and EBITDA carry 29 to 30 brokers through FY-2027 and 19 in FY-2028, but the channel splits carry 10 to 15, the US/international billings split 6 to 9, and total clients only 3 to 5. The one customer-retention line in the feed is a single broker's, last revised 2022-02-14 for FY-2027 and FY-2028 — one analyst's placeholder, not consensus.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.