CapIQ
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-30.
FY2028 normalized EPS consensus down 23% over 180 days, revenue down 18% - but flat for a month
EPS has been cut harder than revenue at both years, so the street has taken down margin expectations as well as the top line. The 30-day columns are close to unchanged on all four rows, which is the first sign in this window that the downgrade run has stalled rather than reversed.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | $2.46 | $2.40 | $2.15 | $2.15 | -10.4% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028 | $2.92 | $2.72 | $2.24 | $2.24 | -17.7% |
| Revenue | FY2027 | $3.87bn | $3.66bn | $3.50bn | $3.48bn | -4.8% |
| Revenue | FY2028 | $4.51bn | $3.95bn | $3.76bn | $3.72bn | -5.8% |
Revenue beat in seven of the last eight quarters, yet the latest EPS print missed by 12%
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 5 consecutive beats; EPS (normalized): 1 consecutive miss.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | $678.67m | $688.86m | +1.5% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $0.32 | $0.28 | -12.4% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | $840.68m | $846.79m | +0.7% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.58 | $0.59 | +1.7% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | $719.34m | $739.43m | +2.8% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.44 | $0.45 | +1.8% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | $686.03m | $694.04m | +1.2% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.41 | $0.41 | -0.9% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | $575.28m | $616.02m | +7.1% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.25 | $0.33 | +33.2% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | Revenue | $759.56m | $741.01m | -2.4% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $0.57 | $0.59 | +3.6% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | Revenue | $620.46m | $628.02m | +1.2% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $0.39 | $0.41 | +4.3% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | Revenue | $578.12m | $584.55m | +1.1% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $0.36 | $0.39 | +9.5% | Beat |
Roughly high-single-digit revenue growth, with gross margin sliding about five points to FY2029
Consensus gross margin falls about five points between FY2025 and FY2029, pausing only between FY2026 and FY2027, and EBITDA grows slower than revenue at the back of the window. Free cash flow is the odd row: consensus has it falling in FY2026 even as revenue rises about 10%, with mean capex higher in FY2026 than in FY2025.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.89bn | $3.18bn | $3.48bn | $3.72bn | $4.05bn | — | 37 | $2.85bn / $2.91bn |
| EBITDA | $1.17bn | $1.26bn | $1.38bn | $1.47bn | $1.55bn | — | 36 | $1.13bn / $1.24bn |
| Gross margin | 78.7% | 76.7% | 76.8% | 75.9% | 73.5% | — | — | — |
| EPS (normalized) | $1.76 | $1.85 | $2.15 | $2.24 | $2.33 | — | 20 | $1.68 / $1.84 |
| Free cash flow | $823.05m | $780.00m | $883.32m | $966.97m | $1.10bn | — | — | — |
FY2027 EBITDA still spans 821 to 1,514 with 34 analysts covering it
On FY2027 EBITDA and FY2028 revenue the median sits above the mean, so the width comes from a handful of low outliers rather than an evenly split street. The FY2028 normalized EPS row rests on 10 analysts - read its range as thin coverage, not as a settled disagreement.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.
| Metric | Period | Mean | Low–high | Spread/mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | FY2027E | $1.38bn | $821.00m–$1.51bn | 50.1% | 34 |
| Revenue | FY2028E | $3.72bn | $2.41bn–$4.05bn | 44.1% | 20 |
| Net income (GAAP) | FY2027E | $577.89m | $279.32m–$699.60m | 72.7% | 25 |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028E | $2.24 | $1.78–$2.57 | 35.2% | 10 |
Street snapshot
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 11, Outperform 2, Hold 19, Underperform 1, Sell 3 | 36 |
| Consensus score | 2.53 | 36 |
| Target price | mean $24.32; median $24.50; high $38.00; low $11.00 | 30 |
Coverage caution: FY2029 rests on a handful of analysts
FY2029 revenue carries 7 estimates, EBITDA 6 and normalized EPS 4, against 35 for revenue and 22 for normalized EPS in FY2026. FY2028 normalized EPS rests on 10. Treat the FY2028-29 columns and their ranges as indicative rather than a consensus.